import sys
import pandas as pd
sys.path.insert(0, r"C:\Users\paul_\OneDrive\fx_macro_intraday\src")

from features.spot_lag_v3 import get_model_ready_spot_lag_v3

df = get_model_ready_spot_lag_v3()
print(f"spot_lag_v3 now extends to: {df['datetime'].max()}")
print(f"Total rows: {len(df):,}")
print()

# How many signal-bars (|z|>=2.75) in April-May 2026?
recent = df[df['datetime'] >= '2026-04-01'].copy()
recent['abs_z'] = recent['lag_zscore_24h_v3'].abs()
breaches = recent[recent['abs_z'] >= 2.75]
print(f"Signal-bars (|z|>=2.75) since April 1: {len(breaches)}")
print()
if len(breaches) > 0:
    print("Sample breach bars:")
    print(breaches[['datetime', 'lag_zscore_24h_v3']].head(20).to_string())
    print()

# Compare against known live signals
print("Live monitor fired EU signal on 2026-04-17 14:01 with z=-3.04")
print("Backtest equivalent z-score at that time:")
target_window = df[(df['datetime'] >= '2026-04-17 13:00:00') & 
                   (df['datetime'] <= '2026-04-17 15:00:00')]
print(target_window[['datetime', 'lag_zscore_24h_v3']].to_string())