════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DUAL FX MACRO MODEL — REAL BACKTEST METRICS Generated from canonical trade tables (real costs applied) ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Source EURUSD : data\processed\trades\trades_real_costs.csv Source USDJPY : data\processed\usdjpy_trades_real_costs.csv Period : 23.13 years Starting bal : $100,000.00 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── HEADLINE METRICS ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Sharpe Ratio : 3.832 Sortino Ratio : 5.863 Calmar Ratio : 3.672 Max DD (fixed) : 3.44% ($-4,683.75) Max DD (compound) : 4.502% ($-23,418.74) Final balance (fixed) : $1,566,106.39 Final balance (compound) : $7,011,603.82 Total return (fixed) : 1466.11% CAGR (fixed) : 12.63% CAGR (compounded) : 20.17% ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── DYNAMIC TIER SIZING (matches live monitor's risk logic) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Sharpe Ratio : 3.678 (vs 3.832 at 1.0×) Max DD (fixed) : 5.153% ($-6,430.03) Max DD (compound) : 5.782% Final balance (fixed) : $1,995,065.61 Final balance (compound) : $9,149,592.87 Total P&L : $1,895,065.61 (vs $1,466,106 at 1.0×) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── WORST CALENDAR YEAR (FTMO fresh-$100k-account perspective) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Worst year (1.0×) : 2013 DD -5.34% ($-5,336.12) Worst year (dyn) : 2013 DD -7.23% ($-7,233.89) This is the perspective FTMO judges: each challenge is a fresh $100k account. The historical worst-year DD is your best estimate of likely worst case during a challenge. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── PER-PAIR BREAKDOWN ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── EURUSD trades=3661 wins=2736 losses= 925 WR= 74.7% total=$ 797,729.82 avg_win=$ 531.39 avg_loss=$ -709.35 best=$ 579.27 worst=$ -873.86 PF=2.216 USDJPY trades= 709 wins= 503 losses= 206 WR= 70.9% total=$ 668,376.57 avg_win=$1,781.14 avg_loss=$-1,104.54 best=$ 4,100.43 worst=$ -2,113.82 PF=3.937 COMBINED trades=4370 wins=3239 losses=1131 WR= 74.1% total=$1,466,106.39 avg_win=$ 725.47 avg_loss=$ -781.33 best=$ 4,100.43 worst=$ -2,113.82 PF=2.659 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ANNUAL P&L (fixed-size) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2003 +$ 12,761.84 ██ 2004 +$ 24,040.80 ████ 2005 +$ 48,091.67 █████████ 2006 +$ 64,606.80 ████████████ 2007 +$ 61,908.04 ████████████ 2008 +$116,910.32 ███████████████████████ 2009 +$ 76,150.51 ███████████████ 2010 +$ 85,119.97 █████████████████ 2011 +$ 72,734.37 ██████████████ 2012 +$ 55,815.67 ███████████ 2013 +$ 64,918.31 ████████████ 2014 +$ 71,817.42 ██████████████ 2015 +$116,888.94 ███████████████████████ 2016 +$ 68,635.03 █████████████ 2017 +$ 49,551.01 █████████ 2018 +$ 40,086.61 ████████ 2019 +$ 40,711.70 ████████ 2020 +$ 63,490.94 ████████████ 2021 +$ 40,877.33 ████████ 2022 +$ 84,752.30 ████████████████ 2023 +$ 73,538.67 ██████████████ 2024 +$ 58,173.19 ███████████ 2025 +$ 56,111.98 ███████████ 2026 +$ 18,412.97 ███ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Equity curve JSON written to: data\output\dashboard_equity.json This summary at: data\output\equity_summary.txt ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════