# EURUSD Macro Regime History Report

**Calibrated:** 2026-05-14T16:23:20
**Velocity lookback:** 14 days
**Score formula:** |velocity_z| + 0.5 * |level_z|

## Tier cutoffs (composite score)

- **Compressed**: score < 0.325
- **Subdued**: 0.325 <= score < 0.644
- **Normal**: 0.644 <= score < 1.140
- **Elevated**: 1.140 <= score < 2.169
- **High Dislocation**: score >= 2.169

## Coverage over 7907 valid days

- Compressed: 10.0% of days
- Subdued: 20.0% of days
- Normal: 30.0% of days
- Elevated: 30.0% of days
- High Dislocation: 10.0% of days

## Per-year tier dominance (% of days)

```
tier  Compressed  Subdued  Normal  Elevated  High Dislocation
year                                                         
2004        12.6     23.3    18.4      35.9               9.7
2005         7.7     25.8    35.3      29.0               2.2
2006        13.2     21.6    33.7      30.7               0.8
2007        13.7     21.9    26.8      23.8              13.7
2008         0.0      0.0     2.7      41.3              56.0
2009         0.0      2.2    37.5      46.3              14.0
2010         0.0      7.9    31.5      51.2               9.3
2011         0.0      1.1    22.5      46.3              30.1
2012         0.0     35.8    46.2      18.0               0.0
2013         0.0     44.7    42.7      12.6               0.0
2014         7.7     49.9    30.7      11.8               0.0
2015        29.6     33.7    23.8      12.6               0.3
2016        16.9     30.9    29.5      18.9               3.8
2017         0.0     18.6    51.5      29.6               0.3
2018         0.0      0.0    33.4      63.3               3.3
2019         0.0      8.2    42.2      41.4               8.2
2020        49.7     19.4    15.3       6.3               9.3
2021        61.1     25.2     9.9       3.8               0.0
2022         0.8      4.1    24.4      39.5              31.2
2023         1.6     20.8    32.9      36.2               8.5
2024         1.6     17.2    32.2      38.3              10.7
2025         1.9     23.6    28.2      34.2              12.1
2026        20.1     35.8    32.1      11.9               0.0
```

## Sanity-check periods

- **Lehman / GFC peak** (2008-09-15 -> 2008-12-31): dominant **High Dislocation** (avg score 2.75) -- High Dislocation 61%, Elevated 34%
- **ECB QE launch** (2015-01-01 -> 2015-06-30): dominant **Subdued** (avg score 0.58) -- Subdued 38%, Compressed 32%, Normal 20%, Elevated 10%
- **Calm 2017** (2017-06-01 -> 2017-12-31): dominant **Normal** (avg score 0.92) -- Normal 46%, Subdued 28%, Elevated 26%
- **COVID shock** (2020-03-01 -> 2020-06-30): dominant **Compressed** (avg score 1.25) -- Compressed 32%, High Dislocation 25%, Subdued 24%, Normal 15%
- **Fed hiking cycle** (2022-01-01 -> 2022-12-31): dominant **Elevated** (avg score 1.81) -- Elevated 39%, High Dislocation 31%, Normal 24%
- **Recent regime 2024** (2024-01-01 -> 2024-12-31): dominant **Elevated** (avg score 1.26) -- Elevated 38%, Normal 32%, Subdued 17%, High Dislocation 11%
- **Recent regime 2025** (2025-01-01 -> 2025-12-31): dominant **Elevated** (avg score 1.22) -- Elevated 34%, Normal 28%, Subdued 24%, High Dislocation 12%
- **Current YTD** (2026-01-01 -> 2026-05-13): dominant **Subdued** (avg score 0.64) -- Subdued 35%, Normal 32%, Compressed 20%, Elevated 12%

## Continuous tier runs >= 60 days (highest/lowest tiers only)