# USDJPY Macro Regime History Report

**Calibrated:** 2026-05-14T16:23:20
**Velocity lookback:** 60 days
**Score formula:** |velocity_z| + 0.5 * |level_z|

## Tier cutoffs (composite score)

- **Subdued**: score < 0.664
- **Normal**: 0.664 <= score < 1.467
- **Active**: score >= 1.467

## Coverage over 13222 valid days

- Subdued: 25.0% of days
- Normal: 50.0% of days
- Active: 25.0% of days

## Per-year tier dominance (% of days)

```
tier  Subdued  Normal  Active
year                         
1990     11.2    36.5    52.3
1991      2.2    70.7    27.1
1992      9.3    39.9    50.8
1993     18.9    45.2    35.9
1994     30.1    30.4    39.5
1995      1.1    59.5    39.5
1996      0.5    37.4    62.0
1997      0.0    54.5    45.5
1998      1.6    49.3    49.0
1999      1.6    49.9    48.5
2000      0.0    24.0    76.0
2001     10.1    51.0    38.9
2002     24.7    43.3    32.1
2003     45.8    42.2    12.1
2004     49.5    33.9    16.7
2005     26.8    57.5    15.6
2006     31.5    68.5     0.0
2007     18.6    51.2    30.1
2008     14.8    24.9    60.4
2009     33.2    62.5     4.4
2010     14.2    83.3     2.5
2011     23.0    75.1     1.9
2012     27.0    73.0     0.0
2013     21.9    78.1     0.0
2014     35.9    64.1     0.0
2015     46.8    52.9     0.3
2016     52.5    47.5     0.0
2017     65.2    34.8     0.0
2018     58.6    41.4     0.0
2019     65.8    33.2     1.1
2020     36.6    42.1    21.3
2021     34.5    65.5     0.0
2022      7.7    29.9    62.5
2023      2.7    49.6    47.7
2024     11.5    53.0    35.5
2025     46.8    48.5     4.7
2026     67.2    32.8     0.0
```

## Sanity-check periods

- **Lehman / GFC peak** (2008-09-15 -> 2008-12-31): dominant **Active** (avg score 2.21) -- Active 94%, Normal 6%
- **BoJ Abenomics QE** (2013-04-01 -> 2013-12-31): dominant **Normal** (avg score 0.78) -- Normal 81%, Subdued 19%
- **JPY intervention 2022** (2022-09-22 -> 2022-12-31): dominant **Active** (avg score 2.27) -- Active 61%, Normal 34%
- **Recent regime 2024** (2024-01-01 -> 2024-12-31): dominant **Normal** (avg score 1.36) -- Normal 53%, Active 36%, Subdued 11%
- **Current YTD** (2026-01-01 -> 2026-05-13): dominant **Subdued** (avg score 0.55) -- Subdued 67%, Normal 33%

## Continuous tier runs >= 60 days (highest/lowest tiers only)

### Active runs
- 1990-07-12 -> 1990-10-16 (97 days)
- 1992-01-21 -> 1992-03-26 (66 days)
- 1993-10-19 -> 1994-01-03 (77 days)
- 1994-11-10 -> 1995-01-26 (78 days)
- 1995-12-16 -> 1996-02-27 (74 days)
- 1998-08-27 -> 1998-11-03 (69 days)
- 1999-12-27 -> 2000-02-25 (61 days)
- 2000-06-26 -> 2000-10-26 (123 days)
- 2000-12-02 -> 2001-02-13 (74 days)
- 2001-09-06 -> 2001-11-11 (67 days)
- 2008-01-22 -> 2008-03-24 (63 days)
- 2008-09-15 -> 2008-11-13 (60 days)
- 2020-02-28 -> 2020-05-14 (77 days)
- 2022-01-25 -> 2022-05-19 (115 days)
- 2022-09-12 -> 2022-11-20 (70 days)
- 2024-07-22 -> 2024-09-29 (70 days)

### Subdued runs
- 2017-05-19 -> 2017-10-05 (140 days)
- 2018-07-31 -> 2018-10-02 (64 days)
- 2025-10-25 -> 2025-12-27 (64 days)