Personal Account Scaling — £10k → £100k

Monte Carlo simulation · Full compounding · Fixed % risk · 20% max DD tolerance · 182 trades/year

Conservative (0.75% risk)

Target reached100%

Median time19 years

DD 95th pct-1.4%

Same as FTMO riskSAFE

Balanced (2.5% risk) ← RECOMMENDED

Target reached100%

Median time7 years

DD 95th pct-4.5%

Well within 20% limitOPTIMAL

Aggressive (5.0% risk)

Target reached100%

Median time4 years

DD 95th pct-9%

Still within limitMONITOR

Risk % Sweep — Time to £100k

Risk%	Reach%	Median	P25	DD p95	Blown%
0.75%	100%	19 yrs	18 yrs	-1.4%	0%
1.00%	100%	14 yrs	14 yrs	-1.8%	0%
1.50%	100%	10 yrs	10 yrs	-2.7%	0%
2.00%	100%	8 yrs	8 yrs	-3.7%	0%
2.50%	100%	7 yrs	6 yrs	-4.5%	0%
3.50%	100%	5 yrs	5 yrs	-6.3%	0%
5.00%	100%	4 yrs	4 yrs	-9.0%	0%
7.50%	100%	3 yrs	3 yrs	-15%	0%

All configs reach £100k with 0% blown rate — the model's 75% WR makes this remarkably robust even at 7.5% risk. Recommended: 2.5% for best risk-adjusted growth.

Projected Equity Growth (median path)

Kelly Criterion Analysis

Full Kelly fraction41.3% (never use)

Half Kelly20.7%

Quarter Kelly10.3%

Eighth Kelly5.2%

Recommended (2.5%)~6% of Kelly

Why not use full/half Kelly? Kelly maximises long-run growth rate but produces 50%+ drawdowns in practice. Quarter-Kelly keeps DD manageable. At 2.5% risk you are at ~6% of Kelly — very conservative, very safe, but still 3.3× faster than FTMO-constrained 0.75%.

Compounding — £10k at 2.5% Risk (median projection)

Practical Scaling Plan — Step-Up Approach

Phase	Account Size	Risk %	Notional/trade	Avg win	Avg loss	Rationale
1 — Paper/FTMO	£10k start	0.75%	£300k	+£179	-£241	Match FTMO validated parameters
2 — Personal launch	£10k–£25k	2.5%	£1,000k	+£597	-£804	3.3× FTMO risk, well within DD limit
3 — Growing	£25k–£50k	2.5%	Scales with balance	Scales	Scales	Compounding kicks in — account doubles
4 — Established	£50k–£100k	2.0%	Scales	Scales	Scales	De-risk slightly as target approaches
5 — Target reached	£100k+	1.0%–1.5%	Scales	Scales	Scales	Wealth preservation mode

Important: The model's edge is the same at any account size. Only the notional scales. At 2.5% risk on £10k the notional per trade is £1m — ensure your broker supports this size (most ECN brokers do at standard leverage). IC Markets Raw: max leverage 500:1, no issues at these sizes. Always run parallel paper account at any new risk level for 2–4 weeks before going live.